Consumers throughout the US, Europe and Asia are getting in touch with their roots this year. No, they’re not contacting third cousins once removed or ordering 23andMe; after going months without seeing their stylists, consumers around the world are watching their hair return to its natural state…and it is anything but pretty.

“Gray it is until I get back in the salon,” said Felicity Breuer, owner of Felicity Loves Hair/Southern Beauty, Sarasota, FL. “They will be lined up at the door when I return, believe me!”

Brandon, owner of Tribeca Salons, Tampa, FL, agreed that the world has been turned upside down during the past two months.

“With lengthy stay-at-home orders being issued, I think we are going to see a major change in consumers’ opinion of hair fashion,” he told Happi. “They will realize a few things; they will have to reduce their budget and, if they attempt their color at home, they will either embrace the DIY look or gain new respect for the art of professional hairdressing.”

Yet, the salon that consumers ultimately come back to may not look like the place they left. Tony Odisho, founder and CEO of the eponymous hair care company specializing in hair extensions, tools and products, observed that the hair salon business cannot survive in its current iteration.

“There is constant disruption in our industry. This should be a time of reflection for the entire industry so that when we get back to work we can fix what is wrong with the professional hair care industry.”

Celebrity stylist and co-founder of R+Co, Garren, warns that the hair salon industry may be mired in a game-changing crisis.

“So much money has been lost, salons may be forced to close and part-time stylists may never come back,” he warned.

The industry has suffered from sluggish growth for years, but the pandemic may force the closure of many financially weakened shops.

Susan Babinsky, senior vice president, Kline Group, warned that COVID-19’s short-term impact is, without question, even greater than the impact that The Great Recession had on the professional hair care industry. She warned that just one month of closures due to COVID-19 translates into a revenue loss of $5.5 billion.

“With a recession beginning, consumer behavior and spending in 2020 will shift even more dramatically than it did in 2009,” she predicted.

In a best-case scenario, salons will reopen sometime this quarter and monthly unemployment rates will range from 5-10%. But even with this optimistic outlook, salon product sales will total just $3.4 billion in 2025, a CAGR of -1.4% from 2019.


Here to Help

Obviously, salons need help to survive; that means financial support via loans and discounts and favorable payment terms, noted Babinsky. To help its clients, John Paul Mitchell Systems enacted JPMS Salon Jumpstart Stimulus, a $4 million program to supply salon with free hair color, backbar, digital support and education opportunities. At the same time, the Paul Mitchell Pro social channels are broadcasting educational classes for hairstylists and salon owners. The classes are hosted by JPMS staff and include business coaches, artistic directors and national hairstyling and coloring educators.

Hair colorist Rita Hazan offers a full spectrum of products created for maintaining fresh and healthy looking hair-color in between salon appointments. During salon closure, Hazan sends clients a single process color formula, along with gloves and an applicator. For root coverup, Hazan recommends her Root Concealer Touch Up Spray.

R+Co is shipping products out on credit. During the lockdown, Garren suggested that this is a good time for salon owners to revamp their business.

“Give your place a facelift and you’ll be ready to go on Day One,” he observed.

Salon owners can help themselves in other ways, too. Kline, too, suggests stylists create root touchup kits and treatment regimens for client pickup or home delivery. At the same time, savvy artificial intelligence and social media types should connect with consumers, understand what they want and create a digital world for them to explore.

According to Kline data, the number of independent stylists rose 7% last year to about 500,000 in the US.

“Due to the pandemic, which will cause some salons to go out of business, chances are that the number of stylists moving to self-employment will rise significantly,” explained Agnieszka Saintemarie, industry manager, Kline.

To help minimize the damage, Odisho is urging stylists to stay in touch with their clientele during the pandemic and suggests customers can support their favorite salons by buying gift certificates online and writing favorable reviews.

All the gloom and doom is in stark contrast to pre-pandemic predictions for hair color. According to 360 Research Reports, the worldwide market for hair color was expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.2% to reach $28.5 billion in 2024. When one takes the long-term view, there is reason to be bullish, of course; aging populations in Europe, Asia and North America are driving demands for hair colorants.

It is surprising then, that in US mass markets, sales of women’s hair color actually declined 2.5% for the year ended Feb. 23, 2020, according to IRI. Men’s hair color sales, in contrast, rose 1.7% and unisex hair color soared 39.3%, during that time (see charts). But for now, gray is the color of the day and may be for the weeks and months ahead.

“Lived-in color is going to be huge this year,” asserted Justiss Boyer, owner and directing manager of Canvas Salon in Mebane, NC and an educator for Zenagen. “Using the balayage technique but instead of just for blondes, we can add pops of color to hair without going super bright. So a darker brunette can add warmth or gold to the hair, reds can add depth with deeper reds, and dark blondes can add brightness where it suits them the most.”

According to Kline, 2019 professional hair care product sales rose 4% at manufacturer level. At the same time, however, overall salon salon revenues declined 4%.



“What’s saving the market is expansion of brands into retail,” observed Saintemarie. “The coloring category performed steadily showing a few percentage points of growth in 2019.”


Ready for My Touchup

Recent search engine data published by Spate reveals that consumers are trying to hold onto their hair color. Between Feb. 16 and March 29, 2020 hair coloring products had the strongest growth with an increase of 65,000 searches. Hair dye, hair bleach, root touchup and root touchup powder were the most popular search for hair coloring



products. In fact, root touchup searches soared nearly 341% during the period, according to Spate.

Despite all the queries, Beth Minardi, colorist at Warren Tricomi Salon in New York City and founder/creative director of Beth Minardi Signature Shades professional hair color, is telling her clients to leave their hair alone until they can see their colorist again.

“Then you can see what you really think about your silver. I believe new trends will grow from this,” she added.

As Boyer’s clients embrace their gray, they prefer a softer fade and Canvas Salon has been using a lot of demi-permanent hair color to allow for a softer grow out with shine and depth. Ironically, she said silver is going away for younger people.

“It’s too expensive to be completely gray and the grow-out isn’t pretty,” she explained. 

Boyer added that her clients have been happy to reschedule their color services, but he understands that some might not be able to wait.

“We’ve asked that they try and forgo the box color, but if they absolutely can’t wait, then to just stick to their part and hairline,” she told Happi.

Madison Reed has been creating upscale at-home hair color for years, but coronavirus has made the company shift its priorities, said Founder and CEO Amy Errett.

“At this incredibly unprecedented moment in history, we are devastated by the suffering and heartbreak families around the world are enduring. From my standpoint as Madison Reed’s founder and CEO, I have three priorities at Madison Reed right now: keeping our employees safe, supporting the needs of our customers, and planning for a future when we emerge from this crisis. I am humbled that so many people are placing their trust in us. It is an honor to serve them.”

During the lockdown, it is critical for consumers and stylists to remain in contact with one another. Brandon suggests that consumers ask their stylist what they can do in the interim, such as direct dyes or cosmetics to cover the roots for the next month.

“Blondes should just let their roots grow out. For the greater good, we need to forsake salon visits to prevent the spread,” he insisted. “If they choose to go gray, root cosmetics, like Style Edit, will help them get past the first few months of a gray grow out.”

As things return to a new normal, Brandon expects a move toward natural hair colors and simple placement—which is the exact opposite of what was coming out of salons pre-coronavirus.

“Up till now, complicated balayage and color melt applications have been on trend, but now tone-on-tone and gray blending will be the most desired for their simplicity and upkeep,” he explained.

“For the clients who must stay in fashion, we will see simple DIY color applications. All over bleaches and all over direct dyes will be simple to apply, but high impact.”

Brandon also expects to see a lot of oranges and reds because the DIY home colorist will probably not be able to get her hair light enough for cool tones.


Hair Color by Numbers

According to The Benchmarking Company, 41% of women colored their hair at home in the past year and 27% went to a salon. As the pandemic put a stranglehold on the US economy, TBC ran a national study on COVID-19 and the beauty consumer’s response to it.

“In anticipation of shelter-in-place mandates, 9% of women who normally color or highlight their hair made arrangements to get that service done,” explained Denise Herich, co-founder and managing partner, TBC. “Now that shelter-in-place is mandated in most every state, 26% anticipate they’ll color their own hair while sheltering, and 7% say they’ll color the hair of someone else in their household.”

Furthermore, 32% say they are spending less time “styling” their hair, apart from coloring, since the start of the pandemic people are not going into the office or seeing others socially, according to Herich.

Yet, even some dermatologists suggest consumers hold out until they can see a professional hair stylist. Dr. Serkan Aygin, who received the European Awards in Medicine 2019 for hair transplantation, said consumers with gray hair should definitely consult with their stylist. He explained that as there is no pigment in the base to lift, it can be a little challenging to obtain a great result from home colorants, which can leave hair in a yellow or beige tone.

“This often results in an unnatural finish and which will not work to match skin tone,” he explained. “How you cover your grays depends on the amount of grays and how light or dark the hair.”

Furthermore, the number of grays and the base color determines the color technique to use. For lighter hair or hair with few grays, use a demi-permanent color, preferably a no-ammonia product that is great for covering gray strands or enhancing the natural color.

“Ideally, it lasts up to 24 shampoos,” he explained. “It does not lift the base color but helps in toning highlights or correcting the existing color by adding intense depth and dimension to it.”

But Aygin warned that consumers who are 75-100% gray may need a permanent dye.

“A permanent dye provides up to 100% gray coverage and a long-lasting result that will grow out, but consumers must pay attention to the roots as they will be more noticeable using permanent color than a semi-permanent color.”


Out-of-the-Box Thinking

With stay-at-home orders in place in most US states and non-essential businesses shuttered throughout the country, at-home hair color companies have an opportunity to reclaim share lost to salons in recent years. According to TBC’s Herich, stay-at-home orders will convince women who had been curious about DIY hair coloring to give brands such as Madison Reed a try.

“Whether they become permanent DIY-ers, and salons suffer a hit, remains to be seen,” added Herich.

In fact, from mid-March to mid-April, Madison Reed experienced a jump in demand—sales to new customers surged 12-fold during the first week in April.

“This is not unlike surges in usage of video-calling companies like Zoom or communication software companies like Slack, anything that allows people to try to carry on with some normal semblance of life during this time,” explained a company spokesperson. “We have seen women who have never colored their hair at home turn to us now, and we’re doing everything we can to try to make it easy for them. These times are anxious enough.”

With the doors of 12 Madison Reed Color Bars closed, the company kept the colorists in those locations employed full-time by transitioning them to its Color Crew customer service team. Madison Reed’s proprietary technology enables the team to respond to customers via phone, text and the website’s chat tool. The company calls them virtual appointments – from being behind the chair in real life to being behind a chair virtually.

“This strategic decision allowed us to quadruple the size of our Color Crew staff from 30 to 115 to support increased customer demand,” said a company spokesperson.

Madison Reed also launched “Colorist on Call,” a twice weekly Facebook Live event where customers can ask questions and get tips for at-home hair color and  help them feel confident about doing it themselves. Colorist On Call runs Saturday at noon (PST) and Wednesdays at 5 p.m. (PST). Madison Reed also increased distribution of its how-to videos to ensure clients have all the support they need to color at home.

“We totally understand the stress that someone can feel the first time they color their hair at home,” said the spokesperson. “It’s actually easier than people think—and we’re there to help. We help them pick the right color and walk them step-by-step through the process.”

Brandon admitted that today’s box color has better ingredients than in the past, but he also noted that a box doesn’t know what is currently on a consumer’s hair, and cannot compensate for that.

“Thus, hot roots, over deposited muddy ends or banding are most likely to occur, and application is the other half of the issue,” he told Happi.  “It is virtually impossible for anyone to apply color accurately onto the back of their head. “

He suggests using either direct dyes or semi permanents, because they do not permanently affect the hair and wash off.

“Using these colors will keep your hair in the best shape so once consumers go back into the salon, there will not be as much repair work,” he observed.


Popular Palettes

From vibrant brunettes to electric fuchsias to intense grays, colorists saw nearly every color imaginable pre-pandemic; that’s no surprise to Breuer, who explained that hair color is all about individuality and what the client wants.

“In this day and age pretty much anything goes,” she said. “While I absolutely love to draw inspiration from the color trends on the runway, it’s not a one-size-fits-all society anymore, which is absolutely refreshing and I love to create custom colors for my clients, and for fun too!”

Breuer’s primary line is Matrix, but she has started playing with Pulp Riot Faction 8 and reports that her clients “are loving it. My go-to line that I use for prepping the hair canvas and removing mineral buildup is Malibu C,” she explained. “I absolutely love everything Malibu C stands for mainly because they focus on the integrity and health of the hair, and that company has given me more corrective coloring confidence behind the chair than I ever had before.”

Stylists and their clients both show growing interest in gentler hair color formulas. For Boyer of Canvas Salon, that means switching to All-Nutrient, which she said is 87% organic and has low if not no PPD (P-Phenylenediamine). 

“PPD is what causes most allergic reactions to hair color; throw other chemicals on top and it can be a color nightmare,” she insisted. “Box color is the worst culprit because it’s full of PPD and it’s being slathered all over the head.”

Companies that create the at-home kits for online purchase aren’t always using the best ingredients either, lower quality ingredients are cheaper to produce and manufacture, charged Boyer.

“One of the reasons we’re switching to All Nutrient is because we’re focused on optimum scalp and hair health, organic ingredients, faster oxidation of the color, and reducing our environmental impact and carbon footprint.”

Minardi prefers Overtone and Evo Fabuloso color-depositing masks which, she explained, let the stylist refresh faded lengths, without having to glaze the hair every time roots get refreshed.

“I also love the Milbon Restorative line. And of course, I use Beth Minardi Signature Shades for every hair color service that I perform,” she added.

To maintain color, Boyer recommends Oi Oil by Davines, which she described as a super light oil with reparative properties, as well as the ultimate in UV protection stemming from its main ingredient roucou oil, which has 100 times more beta carotene than a carrot.

“We recommend it to all our color clients,” she added.

For simplicity of DIY applications, Brandon recommends View from Davines for gray blending and enhancing natural color. For vivid colors, he explained that Osmo lightener for blonding is easy to apply and less damaging than many other lighteners.


What’s Trending?

Minardi told Happi that hot shots are in—shots of blue, green, pink mixed into a more natural base. Ironically, she said silver is trending, too, but it’s more of an expression of silver right at the temples.

“I’m doing an experiment right now and letting one section on each side come in silver. When I’m creating the look on a client, I’m placing six threads on each side of the center part or allowing the silver to grow in natural then applying a demi-pemanent cream pastel highlight. It’s beautiful when you wearing hair back and up,” she explained.

For a different version, Minardi takes very visible swatches of nearly black and weaves it into natural silver—think of it as a very sexy Cruella De Ville, she explained. 

“Again, when it’s swept up and away from the face, it looks like a really cool shot of silver or a silver accessory.”

Boyer told Happi that as women start embracing their gray more, more of her clients prefer a softer fade. To achieve it, she relies on demi-permanent hair color to allow for a softer grow out with shine and depth.

“Silver is going away for younger people, it’s too expensive to be completely gray and the grow-out isn’t pretty,” she added.

Minardi added, “Platinum has been fun but when you keep doing it, the hair is going to break.”

Instead, Minardi predicts a return to prettier brunettes—not monochromatic browns, but really rich, dimensional mochas and caramels. What’s out? Mermaid colors.

“They’re too time consuming, too expensive for the client because of the time they take and they fade very quickly,” she explained.

Closing Thoughts
While they are generally pleased with formulations, stylists contend that there is room for improvement. Minardi urged the industry to find a replacement for PPD and provide better education for colorists.

“The hair closest to the scalp is a very different fiber than the lengths,” she told Happi. “We need to develop new products that impart color, brilliance and strength into the hair lengths.”

Breuer explained that, on occasion, she works with a client who is sensitive to a product’s fragrance, but she adjusts accordingly and hasn’t had any real issues with ingredients during her career.

“Sometimes I do notice differences in results with a certain line but it’s nothing major that can’t be tweaked once discovered after rinsing the color out,” she explained. “It goes with the territory of being a cosmetologist.”

Unfortunately, hair stylists and salon owners have much, much more to be concerned about during a pandemic.